Beta - Beta measures the relationship between an investment and a major market index (the S&P 500 is used in this report). A beta of 1.0 means that a 1% rise in the S&P 500 could lead to a 1% rise in the investment, while a beta of -0.5 means that a 1% rise in the S&P 500 could lead to a 0.5% drop in the investment. The beta for an investment is determined by using regression analysis to measure the relationship between the returns of the investment and the returns of the S&P500. HiddenLevers uses 10 years of data to measure the beta for an investment. For investments with less than 10 years of history, all available historical data is used.
Category Fee Range - The range is determined by taking the average fee of all funds in a category, and then determining the standard deviation of fees from that average. The low end of the fee range is set to be two standard deviations below the average, and the high end of the fee range is set to be two standard deviations above the average.
Cross Correlations - HiddenLevers measures the correlation between every pair of investments in the portfolio. The correlation results can vary between 1 and -1, where a correlation of 1 means that two investments move together perfectly over time, and a correlation of -1 means that two investments move in opposite directions over time.
Expected Return - This is the 5-year total return of the portfolio based on the stress test scenarios selected for the report. The system takes the weighted average of the economic scenarios to calculate a one-year return, which is then compounded to determine the fiveyear return.
Lever - HiddenLevers tracks different levers (economic indicators) like CPI, US GDP Growth, and oil prices, and uses movements in these levers to define economic scenarios.
Lever Impact - The lever impacts section describes the impact of different economic levers on the portfolio as a whole. An S&P lever impact of 1.0, for example, means that a 1% rise in the S&P 500 is projected to lead to a 1% rise in the portfolio. HiddenLevers similarly measures the impact of a range of economic levers on the portfolio. Maximum Drawdown (MDD) - this is measured as the largest percentage drop in a position during the timeframe of measurement.
Scenario - A scenario is a representation of a major macro-economic or geopolitical event which has the potential to impact investment returns. HiddenLevers models scenarios as a set of up-or-down movements in any of the economic indicators (levers) in the system.
Scenario Impacts - Using HiddenLevers' stress testing model, an upside and downside impact are projected for the portfolio in each scenario. Most scenarios are modeled with multiple potential outcomes, with both positive, neutral, and negative outcomes considered. The best and worst projections are derived from running the different scenario outcomes against the portfolio in HiddenLevers model. The scenario-based stress testing model is discussed in detail in the Method section below.
Sharpe Ratio - The Sharpe Ratio is the a measure for calculating risk-adjusted return, and this ratio has become the industry standard for such calculations. It was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe. The Sharpe ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. HiddenLevers calculates the Sharpe ratio by subtracting (12M) T-bill rates from the portfolio's annualized total return, and then dividing by the portfolio's volatility (annualized standard deviation).
Sortino Ratio - The Sortino Ratio subtracts the risk-free rate of return form the portfolio's return, and then divides that by the downside deviation.
Stress Test Risk/Reward - The Stress Test Risk/Reward compares the portfolio's potential downside risk against the 5 year expected return of the portfolio. Downside Risk: This is the maximum downside calculated across all of the scenarios included in the report. 5 Year Expected Return: HiddenLevers first calculates the expected return for the portfolio by calculating the one-year weighted average expected return across all included scenarios. The one-year expected return is then compounded to obtain a 5 year return estimate. Historically, major downside events occur roughly twice a decade, making 5 years an appropriate timeframe for comparison of long term returns and downside scenario risk.
Volatility - HiddenLevers measures volatility as the annualized standard deviation of an investment or portfolio, expressed in percentage terms. The standard deviation is calculated using weekly data points, and is then annualized by multiplying by the square-root of 52 (number of periods in one year).
Potential Downside - Potential Downside is calculated by taking the account value and multiplying by the most potential downside seen in the portfolio through stress tests listed in the stress test section.
Total Return - Calculation of returns of all securities inside of portfolio over the timeframe selected for proposal. The calculation assumes the same portfolio for entire timeframe rebalanced weekly. Yield and expense ratio for each security is included in this calculation.
Expense Ratio - The expense ratio is a weighted average of the most recently disclosed net expense ratio for securities in the portfolio.
Yield - The weighted average of the current yield (data updated monthly) for securities in the portfolio.